The lecture series Crossroads: Ideas for a New Century will resume on Friday, February 20, 7:30 p.m. at Orcas Center. Professor Joseph Massey, founding director of the Center for International Business at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, will speak on The Dragon and the Elephant: China, India, and Global Economic Leadership in the 21st Century.

“Take another deep breath,” advises Professor Massey, “to go along with those deep breaths you’ve been taking to calm nerves already frayed by the current financial crisis. Your world is about to change again, this time for the long run as the two largest nations in the world contend for global economic leadership.” In the space of just a single generation, he notes, “China has roared onto the world economic stage” with the highest sustained growth rate since the industrial revolution began, and the country will likely overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy within the next few decades. But India is hot on China’s heels with an economy that is growing almost as quickly, and a population that is expanding rapidly while China’s continues to age. By mid-century, says Massey, India will be the world’s most populous (and largest English-speaking) nation.

What is the likely impact of this rivalry on the global economy, and on American prospects for continued preeminence? Professor Massey will draw on his extensive experience in the world of international trade to assess the relative advantages of both China and India, the constraints facing each, and the ways in which their competition may play out in the next few years.

Until taking early retirement and moving to Orcas in 2007, Professor Massey was Professor of International Business at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business and the first Director of the School’s Center for International Business. Before joining the Dartmouth faculty, he was Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan and China, a position in which he was was primarily responsible for U.S. trade policy and negotiating strategy toward those two countries, and also served as the Deputy Assistant Director for Commerce and Trade within the White House Office Of Policy Development.

Professor Massey continues to lecture and consult widely, and he serves on numerous boards and committees. He has appeared on television programs both in the United States and abroad, and has been published, quoted, and profiled in a number journals including the Financial Times, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, and the New York Times. Since joining the Orcas community, he has also assumed a leadership role at Orcas Center, where he is President of the Board of Trustees.

The Crossroads series presents thoughtful, provocative speakers who help the Orcas community think about timely issues, both local and global. It is sponsored by the Friends of the Orcas Island Library in cooperation with Orcas Island Public Library, with generous support from the Sir Francis Bacon Foundation, the Daniel and Margaret Carper Foundation, the Orcas Island Community Foundation, Orcas Center, and individual contributors at the door. Tickets may be obtained at Darvill’s Bookstore and the Orcas Library at no cost. Contributions at the doors to ensure the continuation of the series are greatly appreciated.