The reasons given for the “vesting” initiative sponsored by the Association of Realtors bother me. I can readily identify with their concerns about the survival of their businesses; after all, many Americans are finding themselves in financial difficulty in this “Great Recession.” However, the premise that uncertainty surrounding the pending update of our Critical Areas Ordinance is causing a “chilling effect” on the real estate market, fails to acknowledge the true market-driven reason for the steep decline in sales, particularly high-end waterfront property.

Waterfront property by its nature is expensive, finite, and with a limited number of qualified buyers equates to a very thin and price-sensitive market. According to a WSU College of Business Real Estate report issued September 2010, we had the highest median home price in the state ($402,000) and as a result, the lowest housing affordability. Reportedly, home re-sales dropped 29.4% in San Juan County; this was the greatest decrease of all counties with Puget Sound waterfront. If the number of homes and property presently on the market could be sold at the current sales tempo, it would take five years for the inventory to be liquidated, and that assumes no inventory additions. At present sales rates, San Juan County has a 14.6-year supply of homes worth more than $500,000; comparatively, the total statewide, all price, supply is 13.9 months.

There are factors other than supply, demand, and pricing that affect real estate sales. The most important, and likely the fundamental reasons for the distress among our realtors is that we still have high unemployment, job insecurity, an unstable housing market, challenging loan accessibility, many states with unbalanced budgets, and a federal government that is borrowing enormous sums from China, all of which contribute to real uncertainty. To blame CAO uncertainty is disingenuous and self-serving.

San Olson

Lopez Island