How much longer will masks be required in the US

December 26, 2021 1:30 am
letters

According to the CDC, 53% of the people in the US have been infected with COVID1. This includes reported and unreported cases. (The total number of cases is approximately 4 times the number of reported cases. 1) Also, according to the Our World In Data2, 61% of the people in the US have been fully vaccinated. Multiplying 61% by 53% equals 32%, the approximate number of people who have been infected and have been fully vaccinated. (This is assuming that the percentage of people who have been infected and have gotten fully vaccinated is approximately the same as the percentage of people who have not been infected and have gotten fully vaccinated) This would mean that 21% have been infected and not fully vaccinated (53% minus 32%). And, 29% have been fully vaccinated and not infected (61% minus 32%). Adding 29% and 21% and 32% equals 82%. The number of people in the US that have been fully vaccinated, infected, or both, is 82%. The percent of people who have not been infected or fully vaccinated is 18%. The population of the US is 330 million. Multiplying 18% by 330 million equals 59 million people who have not been infected or fully vaccinated.

Currently, according to the WorldOMeter website3, there are approximately 150,000 reported cases per day in the US. Since the CDC estimates that the total number of cases is 4 times the number of reported cases, that would mean there are about 600,000 new cases of COVID in the US per day.

What about people who are infected twice or getting COVID after being vaccinated? According to the CDC4, “Cases of reinfection with COVID-19 have been reported, but remain rare.” ​​In addition, the chance of getting COVID once you have been vaccinated is rare (about .1%)5.

If the number of people who have not been infected and are not fully vaccinated, 59 million, is divided by the number of new cases per day, 600,000, the result is 98 days. At the current rate of infection, everyone in the US will either have been infected or fully vaccinated by the end of March.

Clyde Salyards

Friday Harbor

1 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

2https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=USA

3 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

4https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfection.html

5https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status