Too soon to tell.

That’s the prognosis for San Juan County’s fiscal health over the remainder of the year.

Still, Auditor Milene Henley said compared to a year ago at this time that the county’s financial outlook shows some sign of improvement and it’s on track, based on first-quarter results, to meet end-of-the-year budget projections.

“The news is much better than last year,” Henley noted as part of the first-quarter financial review. “It’s better, but it’s not perfect.”

Though revenue from building permits is up, Henley noted Tuesday in her presentation to the County Council that increase appears to be the result of higher fees rather than greater demand. She added that the number of permits issued for single-family residences, long-seen as a barometer of construction projects yet to come, is roughly equivalent to the number issued in the first three months of 2009.

In addition, Henley said revenue from real estate transactions is lagging behind projections despite a recent uptick.

“We’ve had a couple good months but we’re still running below budget,” she said.

On the expense side of the ledger, Henley said most departments are in-line with their respective budgets and that it’s early enough in the year for those that are not to adjust. Most departments are also ratcheting down expenses by 2 percent to help plug a lingering $266,000 shortfall in the 2010 budget. Voluntary employee furloughs are expected to account for more than one-third of those reductions.

Property tax and sales tax revenues are also in line with projections. Those two together generate roughly two-thirds of the revenue in the county general fund, which covers much of the county’s day-to-day expenses and in 2010 is expected to total $13.4 million.

Henley cautioned, however, that last year’s first-quarter review showed sales-tax revenue on course to meet projections as well. When the books were closed on 2009, it had fallen $400,000 short, or 92 percent, of its budgeted mark. The summer months, in which the largest amount of sales-tax revenue is typically generated, should have the biggest impact on the county’s bottom line, she said.

“Once again, sales tax is the big question mark,” Henley said.

Unlike last year, the so-called “other third” of general-fund revenues, which include licenses and permits, fines and penalties and investment earnings, are together exceeding the budgeted mark.

At this point, Henley recommended that the council, “hold steady and hope for the best.”